Benazir's death is a tragic blow for future stability in Pakistan

I was at home with my family when my sister came into the living room and informed us that Benazir had been killed in a gun and bomb attack in the Northern city of Rawalpindi. We turned on the TV and incredulity turned to horror. Despite the previous attack on her life only a few months ago, I expected - like most - that come the general elections in January 2008, she would win the popular vote and enter into a power sharing arrangement with Pervez Musharraf.

As it is, the murder of the 54-year-old former prime minister - the first woman elected to lead a post-colonial Muslim state - less than two weeks before the general election, has dashed hopes of a peaceful transition to democracy. It has also left Pakistan's largest political party, the PPP without its charismatic leader and heir to the Bhutto dynasty. Her death also presents the question of whether the elections will go ahead at all. Musharraf (who retired as Army Chief only this month) has yet to indicate whether elections will still be held as scheduled on January 8 or whether he will re-impose the state of emergency that he lifted only a fortnight ago.

Al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility for her murder. Many however blame Musharraf for the lack of heightened security around her (though to be fair, it is virtually impossible to provide protection against those intent on killing a key political leader and maiming innocent civilians) and others question why Benazir did not take increased security precautions when she knew the risks to her life. If the army is blamed for Ms Bhutto’s death or is seen as somehow having failed to take adequate measures to protect her, Musharraf, will face a huge backlash. We are poised for some difficult days ahead. Without Musharraf, the country could descend into chaos. It is an outcome which is unthinkable for the West given Pakistan's strategic importance - especially as the key front against extremism - and the fact that it is a nuclear nation.

Musharraf has announced three days of mourning. The other main opposition leader and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has said that his party, the PML-N, would boycott the elections, called for a nationwide strike on Friday and demanded that Pervez Musharraf step down as president. The PPP - which will see its leader buried tomorrow - has said that it would observe a 40-day period of mourning.

We should not rewrite history and must remember that Benazir's time in office was marred by allegations of corruption and incompetence. However, she was a voice of moderation and the only credible candidate who could have entered into any sort of political cohabitation with Musharraf. Moreover, Benazir had the gravitas to take the country forward and the ear of the West (but which tragically probably contributed to her death). Such a coalition would have legitimised Musharraf's increasingly unpopular government, thereby easing the West's concerns about the deteriorating political and security situation in the country. It is highly unlikely that Nawaz Sharif – a conservative politician, who like Benazir served two terms in office and was also marred by corruption - will be able to enter into any sort of coalition with Musharraf. Musharraf is, after all, the man who ousted him in a coup in October 1999, had him tried for treason and then exiled.

Where does this all leave the PPP? The party - despite having grassroots support in the country (in particular in the Southern province of Sindh) - has essentially been the political vehicle for Benazir and her father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto before her. Benazir's children are yet too young to assume the mantle of power.

And therein may lie the possible silver lining in all of this mess. The PPP may now be forced to look at a potential leader from outside the Bhutto clan. As a result, we may see a less feudalistic and dynastic form of politics evolving in the country. One strong contender is the senator and lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan. His stature within Pakistan - after defending the former Chief Justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, against charges of misconduct levied by the government - cannot be disputed. He was also recently elected The President of the Supreme Court Bar Association.

However, it is questionable whether Mr. Ahsan would be persuaded to enter into a power sharing arrangement with Musharraf. This is a man who after studying at Cambridge and returning to Pakistan and topping the civil service exams, refused to join government service as he objected to the military rule of General Ayub Khan. Musharraf himself may not be thrilled at the prospect. There is another problem too to his appointment. He had a rocky relationship with Benazir and she apparenly did not approve of his high profile as the leader of the campaign to reinstate the country's former Chief Justice.

The other two main candidates to take over the stewardship of the PPP are Benazir's widower, Asif Ali Zardari and Makhdoom Amin Fahim, PPP vice-chairman and one of Bhutto’s staunchest allies. Amin Fahim, like the Bhuttos, comes from a feudal family in the Sindh province and would be a safe pair of hands before Benazir's eldest son, Bilawal is ready to take over. One cannot rule out Mr. Zardari however. As Benazir's husband, he would be a popular choice for many party hardliners. I suspect though that he may step aside voluntarily due to the corruption charges that have hung over him (that is not to say that he would not have a controlling influence behind the scenes).

I feel for the Bhutto family. First the father was executed in 1979 by the then military ruler, Gen Zia ul-Haq in 1977, then both of Benazir's two brothers were murdered in rather murky circumstances and now she. It is very surreal that Benazir is gone. Whatever people thought of Bhutto, despite the risks to her life, she returned to Pakistan to fight the election and for what she believed in. That was a huge act of bravery in itself.

As news of Benazir's death spread, angry supporters took to the streets, burning vehicles and trains and damaging public buildings. I doubt that Pakistan will - as some fear - be plunged into civil war. However, the future looks bleak and the West will now have to reassess its strategy in the country. In the face of quite poor odds, Musharraf, as well as the rest of Pakistan' political elite, will have to show real courage for the sake of the country.

UPDATE:
The 19-year-old son of Benazir, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has been installed as Chairman of the PPP, with his father as Co-Chairman.

David Blair has written an interesting piece for the Telegraph, noting that "The largest opposition movement could have seized the chance to prove that it amounts to more than a personality cult built around the famous Bhutto name" but "Instead, the PPP chose to anoint 19-year-old Bilawal Bhutto, presently an undergraduate at Christ Church, Oxford, as the new leader. The latest Bhutto to be propelled into politics arrived on the scene without a vote or any kind of formal procedure. His famous name was enough." (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/davidblair/dec07/ppp-ideology.htm) and

Mahnaz Malik has written an article in The Times on how she hopes "Bilawal Zardari can be the superhero saviour" http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3111761.ece.

Brown signs the Treaty of Lisbon...eventually

Two days ago, Gordon Brown did finally sign the Lisbon Treaty. But he did not have the guts to sign it alongside the leaders of the other 26 European nations or appear in official photographs. For a man who is ready to break Labour’s manifesto promise to hold a referendum on the EU Constitution, this was cowardly behaviour; but what else should we expect from Brown the Bottler?

As it is, he has bequeathed Britain a double-edged sword – not only did he sign away unprecedented powers to the EU but as a result of his behaviour, caused deep irritation and resentment amongst our European partners and actually managed to lose us influence in Brussels!

What's wrong with Christmas?

I have always looked forward to Christmas. It is the one time of year that we are all allowed to slow down. Most people can't wait to put up decorations, send out Christmas cards and go carol singing. It is a time when the community comes together. It is a time for renewed spirituality.

So why has Christmas been so downgraded? At schools, nativity plays are under threat as headteachers opt for more secular stories to avoid "offending" other religious minorities. But surely the real drive comes from more secular elements? How can we have a successful multi-cultural and multi-faith country if we don't recognise Christmas, which is after all practised by the majority of people in this country?

There is a wider issue of teaching religion and practising religious traditions (such as nativity plays) in schools (by that I mean any faith). Not imparting some faith in schools is dangerous in one key respect: religion provides a moral code. We have an obligation to teach such values to our children - if they choose to opt out of religious practice or ignore such values later in life, it is up to them. But let's not start from a position of indifference.

Britain falls down another league table

Every three years, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development compiles an International Student Assessment survey. Its latest survey downgrades the performance of 15 years olds in the UK from 4th to 14th in science, 7th to 17th in reading and 8th to 24th in maths. In the most basic but crucial subjects, our system is simply not up to scratch. These are not the thresholds of performance that will enable the UK to effectively compete in the global economy. The Government's biggest failure may, after the NHS, be the neglect of the education of our kids.

*** This survey comes hot on the heels of the World Economic Forum's annual global report, which put Britain in ninth place in the world league for overall competitiveness, down from second place last year. So much for Brown's claims that under Labour the economy has never been stronger.

National Public Art Conference

On 7 December 2007, the 3rd National Public Art Conference will be held in Nottingham , presenting the role of art, culture and architecture as catalysts for change in shaping regional identity. The conference will investigate artists’ responses to civic culture and the challenge of architectural and environmental regeneration. It will examine how art and culture-led approaches can provide wider social and economic benefits for people, places and communities.

I would like to see more such round table discussions. We talk so much of social cohesion and getting people to feel British. The teaching of history in our schools is a great foundation. Sport can bring people from all walks of life together. And art and architecture can give a huge sense of civic pride. I'm biased because I almost studied architecture but I would like to see more city centres re-energised by ensuring that redevelopment is accompanied by a sprinkling of aesthetically pleasing buildings that could eventually become landmarks and a source of local pride, or even a sculpture or mural (not so sure about - has to be the right sort of mural) as a centre point. We want our urban thoroughfares to be places where people not only come to but come together. I would also like to see more Arts funding. As a nation, Brits are wonderfully creative and our Arts industry is thriving but there is much more that can be done in bringing the Arts to communities, especially to our youth.

Swindon and the Art of Campaigning

I made a trip to Swindon, excited that I would be campaigning with two Conservative Candidates who have made huge inroads since they were selected (and re-selected), slashing the Labour majority in the last general election: Robert Buckland, PPC for South Swindon (who I knew before) and Justin Tomlinson, PPC for North Swindon (who I was meeting for the first time).

The morning began in Gorse Hill in North Swindon and I was floored by the campaigning skills of Justin and his team of 20/30 year old helpers (all mostly Councillors I might add). We went in one big group and literally ran through the streets quickly putting mail through letter boxes. In some areas, it was the third time in a month that residents were getting news from the Conservative team. We covered a huge area in one morning. The Swindon lot campaign as a team - the Christmas cards had pictures of Justin and every one of the 23 Councillors (Justin is also a local councillor). Justin is possibly the best campaigner I have ever met and I know a few very good ones indeed. Being so many together, the morning was alot of fun - it kept us energised and after lunch we did one final stop only to be out-manoeuvred by the heavens. At one point, five of us were standing under my umbrella getting pelted by the enormous golf balls raining down on us. As Justin's wife Halina said, we had to get soaked at the absolute furthest point from our cars!

Then it was southward bound.

I was dropped to Westlea by Chris Van Roon, an ardent Swindon Town FC supporter who was off to watch Swindon play in the FA Cup (they won (!!!) and may meet my team, Liverpool FC in the next round). By the time we reached South Swindon, it was raining heavily. But as Rob and I both agreed, if you waited for sunny perfect weather to get out and about, you wouldn't get that much done. So armed with a beanie (Rob) and a battered umbrella (me), we went on a delivery round. Rob had a wonderful idea of giving all residents a 2008 calendar (instead of Christmas cards) with a Christmas message from him and the team of 21 South Swindon Conservative Councillors. It was such a good idea. I know I rely on the A5 size calendars to place on my fridge door - I consult them all the time and would be lost without them!!! Afterwards, we joined up for a debrief at a local pub with Councillors Michael Dickinson and Peter Greenhalgh - who had spent the afternoon delivering elsewhere. We chatted about rugby, economic regeneration, saving the pound and social cohesion. The day ended at the house of Councillor Steve Wakefield (to be mayor next year) - an ex-Met police officer and military historian. He showed us all a book he had written on his father's time as a railway worker. A really knowledgeable and charming man who will make a great mayor for the city.

It was great to see Rob again. He has a wealth of experience to bring to Parliament - as a lawyer, conservative activist and from his work as Coordinator of the Swindon Special Educational Needs Network (http://www.swindon-senn.net/, which he launched in 2006 with the support of local parents, teachers and volunteers (SENN recently submitted evidence to the Commons Education Select Committee). What makes Rob stand out is his total commitment to his work, politics and family.

The day in Swindon was marvellous, meeting two very different candidates in two different areas of Swindon. They both deserve to be the next MPs in Swindon. Hard work tends to pay off but Justin and Rob have the ideas to improve Swindon to make sure that it does! I was also bowled over by the Councillors that I met - very committed individuals indeed.

The website for Swindon Conservatives is http://www.swindonconservatives.com/.